BIZNES

Eurozone PMI hits 3½‑year high, services sector drives surge

Analiza

We wrapp up September 2026 with the composite PMI for the euro area reaching 53.1 points, the strongest reading since April 2023. The surge is anchored mainly in the services sector, where the index jumped from 51.6 to 53.0, driven by a robust rebound in Germany (up to 52.9) and a notable recovery in France (up to 51.4). Industrial activity held steady at 52.7 points, matching August's four‑year high, reflecting modest gains in smaller euro‑zone economies despite a slight slowdown in Germany and France. The improvement arrives amid lingering energy price pressure from the Middle‑East conflict and a still‑elevated inflation outlook, prompting analysts to watch ECB policy closely. S&P Global attributes the momentum to a German industrial revival powered by AI adoption and increased defence spending. Chris Williamson of S&P Global Market Intelligence highlights a quarterly GDP growth estimate of 0.4% and expects the order‑book momentum to sustain into Q4, while also warning that the stronger outlook could trigger another ECB rate hike before year‑end.

Kontekst i Tło

The PMI upswing signals renewed confidence among euro‑zone firms, likely translating into higher hiring and consumer spending in the coming months. A sustained services boom could offset lingering supply‑side constraints, supporting a gradual acceleration of GDP growth beyond the modest 0.4% forecast. However, the renewed inflationary pressure from energy markets may force the European Central Bank to tighten monetary policy, potentially dampening credit conditions. Investors are likely to re‑price euro‑area assets, with equities in AI‑related and defence sectors poised for upside. In the longer term, the data suggest that the eurozone is moving out of the stagnation phase that followed the energy crisis, but the trajectory remains vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and policy responses.

Komentarz Redakcji

InfoHub notes that the eurozone’s sudden optimism is a double‑edged sword: while the services lift is welcome, it also raises the specter of premature rate hikes that could stall the recovery. The market’s patience will be tested as policymakers balance inflation against growth.